The Path to the White House Runs Through Latinos
by Maria Teresa Kumar, CEO of Voto Latino
You’d be forgiven to think that the folks Donald Trump called “in many cases, criminals, drug dealers, rapists” in 2016 would enthusiastically support his opponent in 2020. And, according to a new survey of 1,200 people, including 200 Latino eligible voters, you’d be wrong.
But while a top line reading might seem encouraging for Trump, a deeper look shows a majority of Latinos disapprove of his performance and finds Joe Biden with a narrow path to shore up the Latino support needed to win in November.
It won’t be easy.
Among those surveyed in six 2020 presidential battleground states that contain Latino populations significant enough to swing a statewide election, we found Biden not only weaker with Latinos than Hillary Clinton was in June 2016, but Latinos in 2020 – especially younger Latinos – are less motivated to vote at all.
How is this possible with a President who says of undocumented immigrants, “they’re not people, they’re animals”? Quite simply, Latinos just aren’t hearing from the Biden campaign or the Democratic party.
Indeed, fewer than half the Latino survey respondents in Arizona, Florida, Nevada, North Carolina, Pennsylvania, and Texas said the Democratic Party is doing a good job of reaching out to them, and 52 percent of self-identified independents agreed the Democrats “do not care too much” about Latinos. Just 32 percent of low-propensity Latino voters say the Democrats are doing a good job of outreach while 27 percent of Latinos ages 18-29 agree. On the contrary, Latino Republicans report higher levels of connectivity with their party than Democrats, with 53 percent of self-identified Republican respondents saying they were contacted by someone, compared to 43 percent of Democrats. The split widens among those expressing a specific candidate preference, with 59 percent of Trump supporters and just 41 percent of Biden backers reporting being contacted by a political party, campaign or organization so far this year.
What both campaigns seem to ignore is that Latinos require sustained outreach from campaigns and organizations to motivate them to vote for their candidate. Our survey found this enthusiasm gap most pronounced among Latinos under 30, with only 46 percent expressing an intent to vote in November, and with undecided Latino voters, with just 37 percent saying they will definitely vote.
So what can the candidates do to turn this apathy into excitement and then into votes?
Our findings do not suggest a viable path forward for President Trump to win a majority of Latinos, who strongly oppose his handling of the pandemic and race relations and are deeply offended by his immigration rhetoric. For Vice President Biden, the path is viable, albeit narrow, and will demand active, regular communication with Latinos, especially younger ones.
There are other areas where Biden may find common ground and an opportunity to build support amongst Latinos. Our survey found Latinos exhibit strong support for Black Lives Matter, with 76 percent saying they support or strongly support the movement. And police reform has captured Latino attention, so much so that while 3 percent of respondents to an April 2020 national survey said that police reform was an important issue, now 19 percent do. More practically, Latinos’ experience and familiarity with vote-by-mail is limited, with two-thirds admitting they are unfamiliar with how to vote by mail in their state.
To ignite the passion that seems lacking amongst potential Latino voters, Vice President Biden must engage and educate on each of these issues, presenting practical policy solutions – including his official convention platform – that address Latino concerns and reflect community input.
While the path to majority Latino voter support appears closed to the President, it remains open to Vice President Biden. The question remaining is whether these encouraging, albeit sobering, findings will encourage him to take the first step.